华北电力大学学报(社会科学版)

新时代新发展理念与“双碳”目标背景下，电力需求系统呈现出多因素、非线性、强反馈的复杂特性，传统预测方法难以全面捕捉其动态反馈特征与演化驱动机制。精细刻画电力需求系统复杂特征，采用新的融合型预测模型将是必然趋势。基于系统动力学理论，结合新时代经济社会与能源结构转型特点，将电力需求系统解构为社会经济与负荷演化、电气化与能源效率、电力结构绿色低碳化、政策机制与行为响应四大核心子系统，剖析其动态反馈特征与演变驱动机制，基于此构建VECM-SD耦合预测模型。VECM模型可严格量化变量间的长期均衡与短期调整关系，为SD模型提供参数标定数据，SD模型通过多子系统反馈结构模拟各因素的动态影响，反馈至VECM进行情景嵌入，通过双向数据交换与迭代优化机制，进行多情景预测。该模型兼具计量分析的严谨性和系统仿真的机制性，具备良好的扩展性，可用于多情景电力需求预测与政策模拟，为能源电力战略制定提供方法论支撑。

Under the background of new development concept in the new era and the "double carbon" goals, the power demand system presents the complex characteristics of multi-factor, nonlinear and strong feedback. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to comprehensively capture its dynamic feedback features and evolutionary driving mechanisms. Consequently, this study develops a novel VECM-SD(Vector Error Correction Model-System Dynamics) coupled forecasting model. The system is deconstructed into four key subsystems: socio-economic, electrification, green power structure, and policy response. This framework facilitates the analysis of its dynamic feedback mechanisms. The VECM component provides robust econometric calibration of variable relationships, while the SD component simulates complex policy impacts and feedback effects. This integrated approach enables sophisticated multi-scenario forecasting and policy simulation. The model offers valuable insights for formulating robust energy strategies and supporting the low-carbon transformation of the coal-powered electricity system, with particular relevance to China's context.